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Outlook on Global Economy and Investment Planning for Labor Funds in 2018

  • Publication Date:2017-12-19
  • Type:NEWS

  The global economy has been recovering moderately since 2017, and the performance of financial market gets progress on the whole. Economic data are improving following the booming up of global manufacture and trade. The outlooks of most economies tend to be optimistic. The U.S., Japan and Eurozone grow steadily, while most Asian economies are better than last year. However, the divergent monetary policy among central banks, trade protectionism and geopolitical risk remain uncertain for the coming year.

  The forecasts from International Monetary Fund (IMF) and IHS Markit have a positive view for the year of 2018. According to IMF, global economy growth rate will rise to 3.7% in 2018 from 3.6% in 2017. IHS Markit predicted that it will be 3.2% both in 2017 and 2018. In general, mainstream institutions predict that global economy will maintain moderate growing in 2018.

  Regarding the outlook in 2018, global interest rate will still be in low level, and inflation will be moderate comparatively. American economy will grow steadily, and keep the reform on finance and tax. Eurozone will speed up its growth; however, China’s economy will be stable. Although some developed countries had adopted or considered tightening, global economy will get support owing to the comparatively sufficient fund supply.

  Taiwan’s economic growth rate in 2017 is better than expected aligning steady recovery of global economy, rising foreign demand, and expansion of export. It has been revealed that domestic economy continues to recover shown on the continual green signal of (Economic) Monitoring Indicator, as well as the rising of Leading and Coincident Indicators. Looking into the future, production and capital-investment will increase in the expectation of that global economy will keep on growing, and advanced manufacturing process will last for Taiwan’s semiconductor producer. The economic dynamic is expected to go up due to the active promotion of Prospective Infrastructure Plan and expansion of overall investment. However, we should still pay attention to the normalization of US monetary policy, China’s economic restructuring, execution of domestic prospective infrastructure plan, and tension of global geopolitics.

  In view of the environment with low interest rate and volatility, the Bureau of Labor Funds (BLF) will strengthen global multi-asset investment strategy in 2018 in order to diversify investment risks and enhance performance. Responding to the growth of the Funds’ size, BLF would increase the domestic mandate position of absolute and relative return, as well as the proportion of overseas equity and alternative investment. In regard to overseas investment, BLF will proceed with the mandate of absolute return equity. By adopting absolute return benchmark, it’s expected that managers could manage the volatility of portfolio and provide protection for downside risk. We anticipate that it will increase long term performance of the Funds by accommodative management.

  BLF always upholds the strategy of diversified investment and prudent allocation. We pursuit stable performance and implement social responsibility. In responding to the ever-changing financial market and economy, BLF will persevere with diversifying global allocation and innovating investment category. We will give close attention to the situation of global politics, economy and markets, and calibrate our portfolios accordingly. It’s expected that the Funds could obtain long-term stable return by grabbing the niche of global investment while balancing market risk.

  • From:Planning and Audit Division
  • Last Modify Date:106-12-19
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